New polling suggests Chequers will cost Conservatives their majority
Global Britain has today published on its website polling undertaken in the 44 most marginal Conservative Party constituencies after the Prime Minister’s Chequers negotiating position was agreed and it sends a warning to drop the proposal of face certain electoral defeat. Commenting on its findings, Brian Monteith, Director of Communications for Global Britain said,
“Our polling delivers a damning verdict on the Chequers proposal and a stark warning to any Tory MP in all but the safest of seats.
“In the first constituency level polling of Conservative marginals since the Chequers proposal, it is clear that voters see Brexit as the most important issue facing the UK, but are unhappy with how the government is handling it.
“But worse for Conservative MPs, voters do not believe Chequers delivers Brexit, do not believe it honours the referendum result and believe it will hurt them, their families and Britain.
“The clear message for any Conservative MP, whether in a leave or remain constituency, is back Chequers and pay the price at the ballot box. Chequers will not deliver Brexit, it will deliver Corbyn.
“The government needs to immediately abandon Chequers and deliver a full Brexit, which gives us back control of our economy, our borders and our future.”
END
For further information please contact Brian Monteith 0754 079 0754
TORY MARGINAL POLL
Methodology:
- Survey of n=22,000 respondents with a max margin of error of +/-0.6 percent at a 95 percent confidence interval.
- Respondents were eligible to vote in UK General Elections.
- Respondents were residents of 44 Conservative marginal seats with majorities 6% or less.
- Minimum quotas set by age, gender, region, education, occupation, tenure and ethnicity, and data weighted where necessary to ensure it is representative of each constituency.
- Telephone poll between July – August 2018.
Q) If a General Election was held today, what is the most important issue that would determine if and how you vote? That could be any local or national issue or political figure or party that is relevant to you in determining your vote if a General Election was held today.
| Total | Soft Voters | |
| Brexit & the EU | 45% | 45% |
| Health & the NHS | 17% | 17% |
| The Economy | 7% | 6% |
| Immigration | 6% | 6% |
| Don’t know | 2% | 3% |
Q) How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the UK government’s current handling of Brexit negotiations?
| Total | Soft Voters | |
| Total Satisfied | 14% | 8% |
| Neutral / DK | 13% | 14% |
| Total Dissatisfied | 73% | 79% |
| NET: Sat – Diss | -59% | -71% |
Q) Before today, had you seen, read or heard anything about the Brexit deal proposed by the Prime Minister, Theresa May, at Chequers?
| Total | Soft Voters | |
| Total Aware | 80% | 78% |
| Don’t know | 1% | 1% |
| Total Unaware | 19% | 21% |
| NET: Aw – Un | +61% | +57% |
- Q) From what you have read, seen, or heard; and even if it is only a slight perception or gut feeling, to what extent do you support or oppose the Chequers Brexit deal proposed by Theresa May?
| Total | Soft Voters | |
| Total Support | 26% | 22% |
| Neutral / DK | 26% | 30% |
| Total Oppose | 48% | 48% |
| NET: Sup – Op | -22% | -26% |
Q) To what extent do you believe that the Chequers Brexit deal is good or bad for Britain?
| Total | Soft Voters | |
| Total Good | 21% | 16% |
| Neutral / DK | 27% | 29% |
| Total Bad | 51% | 54% |
| NET: Goo – Bad | -30% | -38% |
Q) To what extent do you believe that the Chequers Brexit deal is good or bad for you and your family?
| Total | Soft Voters | |
| Total Good | 19% | 13% |
| Neutral / DK | 36% | 40% |
| Total Bad | 45% | 47% |
| NET: Goo – Bad | -26% | -34% |
Q) To what extent do you believe that the Chequers Brexit deal would result in a ‘true’ Brexit, and to what extent do you believe that it would result in the UK staying in the EU in all but name only?
| Total | Soft Voters | |
| A True Brexit | 23% | 19% |
| Neutral / DK | 30% | 31% |
| Staying in EU in all but name | 47% | 50% |
| NET: Tru – Stay | -24% | -31% |
Q) To what extent do you agree or disagree that the Chequers Brexit deal represents what Leave voters believed they were voting for in the EU Referendum in 2016?
| Total | Soft Voters | |
| Total Agree | 16% | 12% |
| Neutral / DK | 23% | 22% |
| Total Disagree | 61% | 66% |
| NET: Ag – Dis | -45% | -54% |
Q) To what extent do you believe that the Chequers Brexit deal respects the EU Referendum results where Britain voted to leave the EU?
| Total | Soft Voters | |
| Total Respects | 30% | 26% |
| Neutral / DK | 25% | 25% |
| Total Disrespects | 46% | 49% |
| NET: Res – Dis | -16% | -23% |
Q) If your local MP supported the Chequers Brexit deal, would this make you more or less likely to vote for them in an election?
| Total | Soft Voters | |
| Total More Likely to Support | 19% | 19% |
| Neutral / DK | 52% | 48% |
| Total Less Likely to Support | 29% | 33% |
| NET: Mor – Less | -10% | -14% |
Summary:
- Voters think that Brexit is the most important issue facing the country but they are strongly dissatisfied with the government’s handling of negotiations.
- As a result, unaided vote for the Conservatives has fallen significantly since last year.
- Most are aware of the Chequers Brexit deal, and most also oppose it.
- They expect it will have a negative effect on both the country, and them and their families.
- They don’t think it respects the Referendum results, and they don’t think that it’s reflective of a true Brexit.
- Consequentially, respondents say that if their local MP supported the Chequers Deal, they would be less likely to support them at the next election.